Threats on the horizon: Emerging challenges to Antarctic conservation

In a new global study, SAEF researchers have identified ten emerging threats that could challenge Antarctic conservation efforts in the coming decade.

The research, led by SAEF research fellow Dr Zachary Carter from the University of Adelaide and QUT, in collaboration with an interdisciplinary team from across SAEF, offers a timely reassessment of a landmark horizon scan of Antarctic conservation issues first published in 2012.

“Our work identifies emerging research and policy priorities for the next decade, particularly in a region where early action can make a critical difference,” Dr Carter said.

To conduct the study, the research team engaged 131 experts from over 40 countries, with backgrounds across science, policy and conservation. Their results have been published today in Nature Ecology and Evolution.

“We find that persistent environmental and geopolitical pressures continue to shape the region’s conservation challenges,” said Dr Carter. “But we also find that new challenges have emerged, reflecting recent global social and environmental developments.”

The threats identified include the likelihood of more extreme precipitation events, a potential reduction in cooperation among the Antarctic Treaty Parties, the potential militarisation of the region, and speculative but still concerning possibilities like the commencement of iceberg harvesting and agricultural expansion.

The team has also identified the emergence of “global disruptions” as a new category of threat. This category includes events such as pandemics and conflicts between Antarctic Treaty Parties, which can disrupt scientific collaboration, environmental monitoring, and diplomatic engagement.

“This finding highlights how interconnected global systems are now exerting increasing influence on the region,” Dr Carter said.

In addition to identifying a list of future threats, the team also hopes the research presents an opportunity to consider how Antarctic governance could be strengthened to meet the scale and complexity of challenges ahead, particularly those that originate outside the region and fall beyond the system’s current jurisdiction.

“We must remember, Antarctica is not just a remote wilderness; it plays a pivotal role in the Earth’s climate system, ocean circulation, and global biodiversity,” Dr Carter said.

“By leveraging the Treaty’s existing provisions for international cooperation, there’s real potential to strengthen the system and ensure Antarctica remains protected in the face of emerging global challenges.”

“This is an opportunity to rethink how we strengthen protection of one of the world’s most globally significant environments before the consequences become irreversible. Because in the end, what happens in Antarctica doesn’t stay in Antarctica.”

Read more

Carter, Z.T., Bode, M., Chown, S.L., Burrows, J.L., Shaw, J.D., Walsh, J.C., Burgman, M.A., Cassey, P. & Wilson, K.A. (2025) Threats on the horizon: Emerging challenges to Antarctic conservation. Nature Ecology and Evolution. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-025-02814-4